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This is a discussion on Q3 Economic results within the Current Events forums, part of the Tech Support Forum category. U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade The economy in the U.S.


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Old 10-30-2014, 08:01 AM   #1
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U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade

Quote:
The economy in the U.S. expanded more than forecast in the third quarter, capping its strongest six months in more than a decade, as gains in government spending and a shrinking trade deficit made up for a slowdown in household purchases.

Gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent annualized rate in the three months ended September after a 4.6 percent gain in the second quarter, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. It marked the strongest back-to-back readings since the last six months of 2003. The median forecast of 87 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 3 percent advance.
Bold mine

Nice bit of news this morning . .

Hashbrown: boehnerjumpsoffGWbridge

U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade* - Bloomberg
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Old 10-30-2014, 03:06 PM   #2
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Mid-terms should correct the situation...and get us in the right direction.
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Old 10-30-2014, 03:33 PM   #3
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Old 10-31-2014, 06:50 AM   #4
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Quote:
U.S. consumer spending fell for the first time in eight months in September, suggesting the economy lost some momentum heading into the fourth quarter.

The slowdown in consumer spending, however, is likely to be temporary, as other data on Friday showed wages in the third quarter recorded their largest increase in more than six years.
Quote:
In a separate report, the Labor Department said its Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of labor costs, increased 0.7 percent after advancing by the same margin in the second quarter.

Wages and salaries, which account for 70 percent of employment costs, rose 0.8 percent in the third quarter, the largest increase since the second quarter of 2008. They had gained 0.6 percent in the second quarter.


About time! !

U.S. consumer spending falters; wage gains highest since 2008 | Reuters
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Old 10-31-2014, 09:37 AM   #5
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US consumer sentiment index reaches 7-year high

Quote:
U.S. consumers expect better economic growth and rising incomes in the coming months, pushing a measure of confidence to a seven-year high in October.

The University of Michigan said Friday that its index of consumer sentiment rose to 86.9 from 84.6 in September. That's the highest since July 2007, five months before the Great Recession began. Still, the index regularly topped 90 before the downturn.

The solid increase suggests consumers largely dismissed concerns about slowing global growth and have ignored the sharp swings in financial markets earlier this month. Instead, greater hiring and lower gas prices are boosting their outlook.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-con...143711612.html
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Old 11-04-2014, 11:10 AM   #6
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Quote:
Robust economic growth has helped push the U.S. budget deficit down to the lowest level since 2008, marking the sharpest turnaround in the government’s fiscal position in at least 46 years.

The shortfall of $483.4 billion in the 12 months ended Sept. 30 was 2.8 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product of $17.2 trillion over the same period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg using Commerce Department figures. The figure peaked at 10.1 percent of GDP in December 2009.
As long as spending and economic growth are going in opposite directions, then should only continue.

"Yeahbutts" may now commence . .

U.S. Deficit Decline to 2.8% of GDP Is Unprecedented Turn - Bloomberg
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Old 11-05-2014, 06:07 AM   #7
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Quote:
U.S. private employers added 230,000 jobs in October, the most since June and exceeding economists' expectations as mid-sized businesses added the most workers in more than seven years, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 220,000 jobs.

September's private payrolls were revised up to 225,000 from the previously reported 213,000.

Including October's gain, the U.S. economy has produced more than 200,000 private-sector jobs for a record seven straight months, dating back to the ADP series origin in May 2001. Private employers have now added jobs for 56 straight months at an average rate of more than 186,000 per month.
Bold mine

Nice trend. .

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-priv...132128930.html
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Old 11-06-2014, 06:57 AM   #8
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U.S. jobless claims decline; compensation rises in third quarter


Quote:
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, in the latest sign of tightening labor market conditions.

Other data on Thursday showed productivity growth slowed in the third quarter while compensation is steadily increasing without creating inflation pressures or weighing on profits.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 278,000 for the week ended Nov. 1, the Labor Department said.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell to its lowest level since April 2000.

"Companies appear increasingly unwilling to layoff labor, which speaks not only to the state of the economy but also, perhaps, to the difficulty in hiring replacement workers," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims dipping to 285,000 last week. Claims have now been below the 300,000 threshold for eight straight weeks, suggesting that employment growth was gaining momentum.

The dollar extended gains versus the yen after the data, while prices for U.S. Treasury debt dipped.

A report on Wednesday showed private payrolls increased 230,000 in October, for a record seven straight months of job gains exceeding 200,000.
Looks like more are starting to see better wages

U.S. jobless claims decline; compensation rises in third quarter | Reuters
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Old 11-07-2014, 08:12 AM   #9
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US employers add 214K jobs; rate dips to 5.8 pct.

Quote:
Three days after voters registered their sourness about the U.S. economy, the government said Friday that employers added a solid 214,000 jobs in October, extending the healthiest pace of hiring in eight years.

The Labor Department also said a combined 31,000 more jobs were added in August and September than it had previously estimated. Employers have now added at least 200,000 jobs for nine straight months — the longest such stretch since 1995.

The burst of hiring lowered the unemployment rate to 5.8 percent from 5.9 percent. It is the lowest rate since July 2008. Yet workers' average hourly pay rose only slightly, a glaring weak spot in an otherwise solid report.
Quote:
"While the labor market is improving and in many respects has already healed, employee bargaining power remains virtually nonexistent," Dan Greenhaus, an analyst at the brokerage firm BTIG LLC, said in a research note.

Still, the brightening jobs picture led more people to start looking for work last month. The percentage of Americans who either have a job or are looking for one rose in October to 62.8 percent. And 267,000 people who had been out of work said they were now employed. Their hiring reduced the number of unemployed to just under 9 million.
Quote:
The share of the population with jobs rose to 59.2 percent in October, the highest since July 2009, from 59 percent the prior month.
Mixed news . .

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-emp...133132004.html
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Old 11-07-2014, 08:50 AM   #10
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Quote:
Three days after voters registered their sourness about the U.S. economy, the government said Friday that employers added a solid 214,000 jobs in October, extending the healthiest pace of hiring in eight years.
Where did they get the notion that the economy was in bad shape?? I have faith that the current economy can be corrected now that the people have spoken.
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Old 11-07-2014, 10:01 AM   #11
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I have faith also that with the unemployment numbers so healthy, that SNAP numbers will decrease. It stands to reason that with so many going back to work, government assistance numbers should decrease also.
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Old 11-07-2014, 10:48 AM   #12
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SNAP is a state program so it will vary by region . . I've not seen nation wide stats, but then I have not looked either . .
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Old 11-07-2014, 11:38 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Rich View Post
SNAP is a state program so it will vary by region . . I've not seen nation wide stats, but then I have not looked either . .

No.

Quote:
The federal government pays 100 percent of SNAP/Food Stamp program benefits. Federal and State governments share administrative costs (with the federal government contributing nearly 50 percent).
SNAP/Food Stamps « Food Research & Action Center
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Old 11-07-2014, 12:29 PM   #14
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Well . . it is administered by the Great State of Texas here .

Regardless, I have not seen any numbers on it . . have you?
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Old 11-08-2014, 05:18 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SABL View Post
Where did they get the notion that the economy was in bad shape?? I have faith that the current economy can be corrected now that the people have spoken.
You know very well where they got that notion. Sound bites voters. Foxnews voters. But we have elections and the people have spoken as you say.

Here's the Rep's plan:

Quote:
These bills include measures authorizing the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, which will mean lower energy costs for families and more jobs for American workers; the Hire More Heroes Act, legislation encouraging employers to hire more of our nation’s veterans; and a proposal to restore the traditional 40-hour definition of full-time employment, removing an arbitrary and destructive government barrier to more hours and better pay created by the Affordable Care Act of 2010.

We’ll also consider legislation to help protect and expand America’s emerging energy boom and to support innovative charter schools around the country. Boehner
I'll take just the first item.

Keystone pipeline:
Quote:
"There’s very few jobs operating pipelines," said Ian Goodman, president of the Goodman Group Ltd., an energy and economic consulting firm in Berkeley, Calif. "That’s one of the reasons why pipelines are attractive to the oil industry. They’re relatively inexpensive to build and operate."

The report says the project would provide jobs for about 35 permanent employees and 15 temporary contractors. CNN
Quote:
In hearings last May and December, TransCanada officials admitted to US legislators that the pipeline will indeed increase the price paid for Canadian oil in the Midwest – but suggested those higher crude oil prices would not necessarily mean higher gasoline prices in that region. CSMonitor
In other words - the first thing out of their mouth is a blatant lie. Why doesn't that surprise me. But you're in charge now. Have fun leading.
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Old 11-08-2014, 06:39 AM   #16
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The product is going to get moved around the planet by someone, by some means, regardless if it's by rail, pipeline, truck or ship. I think everyone agrees on that. Each method comes with distinct environmental hazard possibilities.

I view the pipeline construction with two things in mind. First, in the world scheme of things, I would rather have as much crude kept on friendly soil as possible. Though there are many Geo-political and economical ramifications for "energy independence", some bad, some good...oil is still a huge bargaining chip.

Second, I view the pipeline construction much like that of a highway or a large bridge. Many who posses the skills to build it, move on after it's completed. The local labor used only last as long as construction takes.
With that in mind, we don't decide not to build the bridge because of the decrease in jobs after it's completed.

My two cents....
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Old 11-08-2014, 06:52 AM   #17
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Quote:
Well . . it is administered by the Great State of Texas here .

Regardless, I have not seen any numbers on it . . have you?
Here is something I agree with and have believed for quite some time. Bold is mine.

Quote:

But that seems to have changed. As unemployment declined between 2003 and 2007, the number of SNAP recipients marched steadily higher. Then, as the Great Recession hit, the SNAP caseload went even higher. The recovery after the 2001 recession did little to interrupt SNAP growth and now-as the economy has strengthened with unemployment declining and jobs growing (although slowly)-the number of SNAP recipients has barely come off its all-time peak of 47.8 million recipients hit in December 2012. Since then, the number of SNAP recipients has only declined by 2.7% -- and oddly ticked up in the months of April and June 2014.

If we compare the current recovery with the recovery after the recession of the 1980s, whose duration and unemployment levels are most comparable, the change in SNAP's responsiveness becomes clear.

Adjusting for population, in the four years following the 1981-1982 recession, there was a 12.5 percent decline in SNAP recipients. In the four years following the 2007-2009 recession, SNAP recipients increased by 15.6 percent. If this recent recovery had behaved like that of the 1980s, by 2013 only 11.5 percent of the population would have been receiving SNAP benefits: 36 million individuals as opposed to 47.6 million. That's a big difference.

Why is the number of SNAP recipients staying near record highs even as the economy strengthens? A common answer is that the economy is still very weak. And there may be some truth to that, but it can't explain the whole difference because the unemployment rate has dropped too far -- indicating that jobs are much more available. Or perhaps the jobs which are coming back don't pay enough to allow many workers to earn enough to no longer be eligible for SNAP benefits? For some time now, many social services leaders including myself have promoted SNAP benefits as a "work support" which can help shore up low wages or limited hours for families with at least one adult worker.

But even that explanation isn't entirely sufficient for one very important reason - a lot of SNAP recipients, who could be working at least a little, aren't. Government data show that as many as 10 million working age adults are getting SNAP and reporting no income from earnings. A program can't be a "work support" if the recipients aren't working.
Or are they? My experience and many studies of low-income communities suggest that at least some of the SNAP recipients who report no earnings have earnings which they receive off the books.

Then there is the Casey Mulligan effect, named that after the University of Chicago economist who has shown that various safety net programs - absent a work requirement - are allowing people to stay out of work longer than they otherwise would if no benefits were available. In the past, I have been skeptical of this position when it is directed at SNAP benefits alone. It is difficult to see how a voucher for food with an average household benefit of less than $230 per month could provide enough aid to make someone decline looking for work. But if that benefit is combined with other benefits -- such as housing assistance, Medicaid or Unemployment Insurance benefits -- it is then possible, even predictable, that this layering of programs may lead some to decide that full time, on-the-books employment is not worth the effort.
The U.S. Economic Recovery Is Still On Food Stamps | RealClearMarkets
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Old 11-08-2014, 07:37 AM   #18
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Any comparison of the 1981-1982 recession to the Bush Recession is like comparing a hangnail to an amputation . .
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Old 11-08-2014, 07:43 AM   #19
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The article addresses SNAP participation numbers, not Bush.
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Old 11-08-2014, 07:45 AM   #20
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Quote:
four years following the 1981-1982 recession, there was a 12.5 percent decline in SNAP recipients
Quote:
In the four years following the 2007-2009 recession, SNAP recipients increased by 15.6 percent
First of all, the downturn in 2007 was not a recession . .

Kinda like saying that I recovered from a hangnail in a week but it took my friend over a year to recover from his amputation . .

In the worst recession since the Great Depression, I would be amazed if financial assistance did anything other than increase

I was expecting "Yeahbutts" . . but this one is one hell of a reach
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