Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Rally's End

mimo2005 · 10-14-2008, 11:36 AM

``We're going to be surprised by the severity of the recession and the severity of the financial losses.''
The economist said the recession will last 18 to 24 months, driving unemployment to 9 percent, and already depressed home prices will fall another 15 percent. The U.S. government will need to double its purchase of bank stakes and force lenders to eliminate dividends to save them from bankruptcy, Roubini added.
``The stock market is going to stop rallying soon enough when they see the economy is really tanking right now,'' Roubini added.

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

Europe to U.S.: You messed up the rescue, too
Europe to U.S.: You messed up the rescue, too - Oct. 13, 2008

**Drew1369** · 10-14-2008, 01:27 PM

yup... they messed up the minute they starting writing on a piece of paper... atleast this one can't be blamed on the republicans... it was the democrats that added MORE spending to entice republicans to vote for it...

idiots

**simpswr** · 10-14-2008, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drew1369

it was the democrats that added MORE spending to entice republicans to vote for it...

idiots

. . so who is to blame???? The enticers or the idiots who were enticed?

yustr · 10-14-2008, 02:38 PM

Ummm, 30 years under republican economic theory and they can't be blamed???

But, that's OFF TOPIC...

Here's my analogy of our current situation: Today - you're driving down the road in an old clunker. Suddenly it sputters and slows to a halt. You look down and notice you're out of gas. So you call AAA and they give you a gallon to get to the next station.

Tomorrow - once underway, you're reminded by the clinks, clangs, coughs, groans, and grinding noises that the motor and transmission are shot, the squeal tells you the breaks are bad, one tire is out of round, the lights don't work...etc.

This bailout fixes the immediate problem but the fundamentals are not sound. Unemployment is high (I'm talking good middle class jobs not part time at Walmart); manufacturing is kaput; we're waging two wars and borrowing to pay for them; our saving rate is very low and our credit rate is very high (but by all means don't stop spending...); our economy is based on cheap energy; bigger is better..................And the band played on...

mimo2005 · 10-14-2008, 03:36 PM

This problem will go on forever if the books are kept closed...opening the books and exposing the true assets: Tansparency, PURE AND SIMPLE. Only then will we get past the REAL problem.

In other news.....:

Half of China’s toy exporters out of business, 52% shut down
http://www.chinatradeinformation.net...-business.html

The President said don't lose confidence! Keep spending, or you are a terrorist.

**simpswr** · 10-14-2008, 03:39 PM

. . support the troops! !

mimo2005 · 10-14-2008, 05:07 PM

Friday Sequoia Capital hosted a mandatory CEO All-Hands Meeting.There were about 100 CEO's in attendance .

some Sequoia Capital Meeting Notes :

This is a different animal and will take years to recover.
· Getting another round if you’re not profitable will be rough.
· Do everything possible to get to cash flow positive. Now.
· Nail your Sales and Marketing message.
· Pound your competitors shortcomings. They’re hurting and they will be quiet. Take the offensive.
· In a downturn, aggressive PR and Communications strategy is key.
· M&;A will decrease dramatically and only lean companies, with proven sales models will be acquired.
· Spectrum discussion:
o Capital Preservation ß----------------------------------à Grab Market
o Everyone should be far to the left (capital preservation)
· Requirements of our companies:
o You must have a proven product
o You must cut expenses. Now and deep.
o Your product should reduce expenses and drive revenue [NOTE: I want to revisit this with the Management team. Our solution does both, we need to quickly and crisply define the sound bite here.]
o Honestly assess your solution vs. your competitors.
o Cash is king [have you gotten this message yet?]
§ Assess your situation. Drop your assumptions, start with a blank page and start zero-based budgeting.
§ Adapt quickly
§ Make your cuts
§ Review all salaries
§ Change sales comp
§ Bolster your balance sheet—if you can add $5M to your coffers, take it and save it.
§ Spend like it’s your last dollar.
· Get Real or Go Home.

MORE:
http://activerain.com/blogsview/7363...-Smart-Money-s

mimo2005 · 10-14-2008, 09:07 PM

10-14-2008, 11:36 AM	#1 (permalink)
mimo2005 Manager, The Relaxation Room/Analyst, Security Team Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 11,142 OS: xp	Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Rally's End ``We're going to be surprised by the severity of the recession and the severity of the financial losses.'' The economist said the recession will last 18 to 24 months, driving unemployment to 9 percent, and already depressed home prices will fall another 15 percent. The U.S. government will need to double its purchase of bank stakes and force lenders to eliminate dividends to save them from bankruptcy, Roubini added. ``The stock market is going to stop rallying soon enough when they see the economy is really tanking right now,'' Roubini added. Bloomberg.com: Worldwide Europe to U.S.: You messed up the rescue, too Europe to U.S.: You messed up the rescue, too - Oct. 13, 2008 __________________ TSF has outgrown its server, again. Please help "Gutta cavat lapidem, non vi sed saepe cadendo"

10-14-2008, 01:27 PM	#2 (permalink)
Drew1369 Moderator Relaxation Room Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Seattle, WA, USA Posts: 3,418 OS: Win7 Ultimate	Re: Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Rally's End yup... they messed up the minute they starting writing on a piece of paper... atleast this one can't be blamed on the republicans... it was the democrats that added MORE spending to entice republicans to vote for it... idiots __________________ We humans have a primal urge to kill because, thanks to natural selection, all the homo sapiens who didn't have a primal urge to kill, were themselves killed. http://obamaclock.org/

10-14-2008, 02:38 PM	#4 (permalink)
yustr Asst. Manager, The Conversation Pit Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Connecticut shore Posts: 6,037 OS: XP Pro My System	Re: Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Rally's End Ummm, 30 years under republican economic theory and they can't be blamed??? But, that's OFF TOPIC... Here's my analogy of our current situation: Today - you're driving down the road in an old clunker. Suddenly it sputters and slows to a halt. You look down and notice you're out of gas. So you call AAA and they give you a gallon to get to the next station. Tomorrow - once underway, you're reminded by the clinks, clangs, coughs, groans, and grinding noises that the motor and transmission are shot, the squeal tells you the breaks are bad, one tire is out of round, the lights don't work...etc. This bailout fixes the immediate problem but the fundamentals are not sound. Unemployment is high (I'm talking good middle class jobs not part time at Walmart); manufacturing is kaput; we're waging two wars and borrowing to pay for them; our saving rate is very low and our credit rate is very high (but by all means don't stop spending...); our economy is based on cheap energy; bigger is better..................And the band played on... __________________ If there are lawyers or politicians involved, logic may be a very poor tool for reaching a conclusion.

10-14-2008, 03:36 PM	#5 (permalink)
mimo2005 Manager, The Relaxation Room/Analyst, Security Team Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 11,142 OS: xp	Re: Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Rally's End This problem will go on forever if the books are kept closed...opening the books and exposing the true assets: Tansparency, PURE AND SIMPLE. Only then will we get past the REAL problem. In other news.....: Half of China’s toy exporters out of business, 52% shut down http://www.chinatradeinformation.net...-business.html The President said don't lose confidence! Keep spending, or you are a terrorist. __________________ TSF has outgrown its server, again. Please help "Gutta cavat lapidem, non vi sed saepe cadendo" Last edited by mimo2005; 10-14-2008 at 03:37 PM.

10-14-2008, 03:39 PM	#6 (permalink)
simpswr Moderator Hardware Team Join Date: May 2007 Location: Houston, Texas Posts: 12,165 OS: XP, Vista, Win 7	Re: Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Rally's End . . support the troops! ! __________________ Rich MemTest86 \| BenchTest \| Virus/Trojan/Spyware Help How to post a Screen Shot \| PC running slow?

10-14-2008, 05:07 PM	#7 (permalink)
mimo2005 Manager, The Relaxation Room/Analyst, Security Team Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 11,142 OS: xp	Re: Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Rally's End Friday Sequoia Capital hosted a mandatory CEO All-Hands Meeting.There were about 100 CEO's in attendance . some Sequoia Capital Meeting Notes : This is a different animal and will take years to recover. · Getting another round if you’re not profitable will be rough. · Do everything possible to get to cash flow positive. Now. · Nail your Sales and Marketing message. · Pound your competitors shortcomings. They’re hurting and they will be quiet. Take the offensive. · In a downturn, aggressive PR and Communications strategy is key. · M&;A will decrease dramatically and only lean companies, with proven sales models will be acquired. · Spectrum discussion: o Capital Preservation ß----------------------------------à Grab Market o Everyone should be far to the left (capital preservation) · Requirements of our companies: o You must have a proven product o You must cut expenses. Now and deep. o Your product should reduce expenses and drive revenue [NOTE: I want to revisit this with the Management team. Our solution does both, we need to quickly and crisply define the sound bite here.] o Honestly assess your solution vs. your competitors. o Cash is king [have you gotten this message yet?] § Assess your situation. Drop your assumptions, start with a blank page and start zero-based budgeting. § Adapt quickly § Make your cuts § Review all salaries § Change sales comp § Bolster your balance sheet—if you can add $5M to your coffers, take it and save it. § Spend like it’s your last dollar. · Get Real or Go Home. MORE: http://activerain.com/blogsview/7363...-Smart-Money-s __________________ TSF has outgrown its server, again. Please help "Gutta cavat lapidem, non vi sed saepe cadendo"

10-14-2008, 09:07 PM	#8 (permalink)
mimo2005 Manager, The Relaxation Room/Analyst, Security Team Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 11,142 OS: xp	Re: Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Rally's End __________________ TSF has outgrown its server, again. Please help "Gutta cavat lapidem, non vi sed saepe cadendo"