A country of idiots with nukes - Part Two

yustr · 07-26-2006, 01:45 PM

A while back we had a thread about how our education system was turning out idiots. I came across this today and decided to start a new discussion. (That thread got out of hand.)

Quote:

Despite several years of official and press reports to the contrary, a new Harris poll finds that half of adult Americans still believe that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (WMD) when the United States invaded the country in 2003.

This is actually up from 36% last year, a Harris poll finds. The polling company itself called this "surprising" -- considering that no WMD were ever found and U.S. inspectors have confirmed the non-existence of active weapons.

In early summer, there were reports that 500 shells once containing mustard or sarin gas nerve agents were found buried long ago in Iraq but they were judged by experts and military officials as decrepit and useless by 2003.

In another finding wildly diverging from most expert opinion and media reports, Harris found that 64% said Saddam Hussein had "strong links" with al-Qaeda, up from 62% in October 2004.

The poll of 1,020 adults was conducted July 5 to 11 and has a margin of error of three percentage points.

Jefferson said "We get the government that we deserve." I guess he's right...

**Sum Yung Guy** · 07-26-2006, 01:57 PM

I dont believe theres weapons of mass destruction in iraq. Its a possibility that there are, but not from Iraqi insurgents. Theres alot of insurgents who come across the various borders to fight us. Theres been a sniper thats been terrorizing the sector I am deployed to who they believe is Lebonese (sp).

As far for the "Saddam Husein had 'strong links' with al-Qaeda".... who knows, I have no evidence to make me think either way so Ill just leave it at that.

daminox · 07-26-2006, 04:59 PM

I'm interested in knowing what a Harris poll is. Did he ask a random person in each county of each state, or just the high-school dropouts? Lol im always skeptical of so-called "polls" because there is no real way of getting a completely unbiased sample of a population. Even if you invite people to a poll on your website, the only people that will come vote are the ones that really think they have a thing or two to critique and criticize concerning the subject matter. Or maybe they just like the notion of the sword being mightier than the pen.

yustr · 07-26-2006, 09:29 PM

The mathmatics associated with polling is not that complex - it's basic statistical probability. For example I once had to ship 11000 containers of waste. I knew they were all from the same source but I had to provide the dispoosal site the maximum amount of a certain contaminant. Now it's impracticle to sample all 11,000 containers so I went to a statistician who told me that I could be 95% confident I had the right number if I sampled 57 of the containers (chosen randomly). If I wanted to be 97% confident I needed to sample another dozen or two. If I could settle for being only 90% confident that I had the right number - I coud get by with 29. (It was some time ago so my numbers are probably off a bit but the magintude of them is correct.)

It's the same with polls. The have it down pretty good how many they need to ask. They also know how to pick the people to ensure a cross section. Slanted? Sure! It does matter how you word the question.

You're right about internet polls. Now if you desire to know how many people who access a particular web site feel about a certain thing - then it can work. But not for how does the whole country feel about the same thing.

**bruiser** · 07-27-2006, 07:01 AM

I took statistics years ago. I don't remember much about it, I hated it, but I was impressed with how easy it is to rig a poll. Any pollster worth his salt can get any answer to any poll he wants. Am I suggesting that some polls are rigged to come to a predetermined conclusion? You bet your booties I am. Not only can the questions(s) be worded in such a way as to come to a predetermined conclusion, but the population sample can be rigged as well. For instance, a political pollster may say we sampled 4 zip codes, 2 of which had a Republican majority, and the other 2 had a Democratic majority of registered voters. And unless the pollster supplies you with ALL the info he had at his disposal, the person reading the poll might not realize that one of the majority parties in two of the zip codes may have had an advantage of maybe 75% to 20%, with 5% independent, while the other majority party may have only had a 52% to 45%, advantage with 3% independent. Unfortunately, most likely you will never know if a poll has been fixed to give a predetermined result. The bigger the population sample, the better the results, if the fix isn't in.

Zazula · 07-27-2006, 07:18 AM

There are three kinds of lies — Lies, damned lies, and statistics

And Zazula's definition of statistics:
I eat two steaks, you eat none - but
according to statistics we've eaten one each.

yustr · 07-27-2006, 08:29 AM

Another:

Bill Gates walks into a homeless shelter with 99 "guests". The average new worth has just gone from zero to $500,000,000 !!!

Actually it's not the math that lies - it's the damned people. If we could just get rid of all of them, we be much better off...

daminox · 07-28-2006, 02:39 PM

I only trust polls done of a given population. For example, i'd probably trust a poll of a student body if the entire student body was given slips of paper on which they can use to vote. I dont trust internet polls because only visitors of that particular site will vote. For example, a poll on CNN.com asking "Do you like paying attention to the news?" is obviously biased because few people visiting CNN.com don't actually care about the news.

And as far as population samples go, what's up with the new "America's Got Talent" show (and many many other televised contests)? You can't be the best in america if not every single person in america was informed of the contest and had the choice to enter it. IMO that's just an example of how a population sample can be used to represent more than it can or should.

Let's just leave it at "Beware of polls conducted by those with an opinion."

bry623 · 07-31-2006, 11:26 AM

I was going to turn this into a bash the polls. Harris, zogby at al. But they beat me to it.

And as far as America's got talent. I like 'Rappin Granny'

**hempknight** · 08-07-2006, 07:06 AM

LMAO!! "rapping granny" that sounds funny..

anyway..i'm not surprised..the big networks can make the news what they want it to be..so the info about iraq != WMD goes out..all foreign media pick it up..CNN reports YES!!! saddam is a BAD arab man..and he wants to hurt your kids!!! and thus ameriancs say YEAH!! lets bomb the crap out of ppl and send masses of young ppl to kill others and die..

what a waste..

bry623 · 08-07-2006, 07:48 AM

A poll question I got was "The minmum wage is $5.15 an hour and has not increased in over 10 years. Do you feel that the minimum wage sould be increased?"

Who would say no to that kind of question.

In America, the only poll that counts is the one on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

**DumberDrummer** · 08-09-2006, 01:10 AM

That one is biased and rigged too...

bry623 · 08-09-2006, 06:02 AM

How is it biased and rigged? It's worked for the last 217 years.

**DumberDrummer** · 08-09-2006, 11:26 AM

Depends on your definition of "worked", now doesn't it?

Just because its been used for the last 217 years doesn't mean it can't be inherently flawed...

bry623 · 08-09-2006, 02:21 PM

Flawed? Maybe, but I am and ends justify the means guy. We wouldn't be where we are today if it hasn't worked. The problem is that the youth of this country believe the liberal media's constant stolen election propaganda and can't let it go. They make Goebbels look tame by comparison.

07-26-2006, 04:59 PM	#3 (permalink)
daminox Registered User Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: western Maryland, USA Posts: 46 OS: XP	I'm interested in knowing what a Harris poll is. Did he ask a random person in each county of each state, or just the high-school dropouts? Lol im always skeptical of so-called "polls" because there is no real way of getting a completely unbiased sample of a population. Even if you invite people to a poll on your website, the only people that will come vote are the ones that really think they have a thing or two to critique and criticize concerning the subject matter. Or maybe they just like the notion of the sword being mightier than the pen. __________________ Pentium 4, 3.0 GHz, 1 GB RAM ATI Radeon x800 128mb PCI-E graphics, CD-RW, DVD-ROM 330 GB internal SATA storage, 120 GB external and my favoritest gaming mouse ever- a Dell default 3-button ball mouse =D

07-26-2006, 09:29 PM	#4 (permalink)
yustr Asst. Manager, The Conversation Pit Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Connecticut shore Posts: 6,052 OS: XP Pro My System	The mathmatics associated with polling is not that complex - it's basic statistical probability. For example I once had to ship 11000 containers of waste. I knew they were all from the same source but I had to provide the dispoosal site the maximum amount of a certain contaminant. Now it's impracticle to sample all 11,000 containers so I went to a statistician who told me that I could be 95% confident I had the right number if I sampled 57 of the containers (chosen randomly). If I wanted to be 97% confident I needed to sample another dozen or two. If I could settle for being only 90% confident that I had the right number - I coud get by with 29. (It was some time ago so my numbers are probably off a bit but the magintude of them is correct.) It's the same with polls. The have it down pretty good how many they need to ask. They also know how to pick the people to ensure a cross section. Slanted? Sure! It does matter how you word the question. You're right about internet polls. Now if you desire to know how many people who access a particular web site feel about a certain thing - then it can work. But not for how does the whole country feel about the same thing. __________________ If there are lawyers or politicians involved, logic may be a very poor tool for reaching a conclusion.

07-27-2006, 07:18 AM	#6 (permalink)
Zazula Manager Emeritus, I'm blond, James Blond Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Athens, Greece Posts: 7,667 OS: Win XP Pro SP2	There are three kinds of lies — Lies, damned lies, and statistics And Zazula's definition of statistics: I eat two steaks, you eat none - but according to statistics we've eaten one each. __________________ "Time is the wisest because it discovers everything" Thales of Miletus (ca.624BC-ca.546BC) "Everything flows, nothing stands still." Heraclitus of Ephesus (ca.535BC-475BC) "One thing I know, that I know nothing" Socrates of Athens (ca.470BC–399BC)

07-27-2006, 08:29 AM	#7 (permalink)
yustr Asst. Manager, The Conversation Pit Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Connecticut shore Posts: 6,052 OS: XP Pro My System	Another: Bill Gates walks into a homeless shelter with 99 "guests". The average new worth has just gone from zero to $500,000,000 !!! Actually it's not the math that lies - it's the damned people. If we could just get rid of all of them, we be much better off... __________________ If there are lawyers or politicians involved, logic may be a very poor tool for reaching a conclusion. Last edited by yustr; 07-27-2006 at 08:30 AM.

07-28-2006, 02:39 PM	#8 (permalink)
daminox Registered User Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: western Maryland, USA Posts: 46 OS: XP	I only trust polls done of a given population. For example, i'd probably trust a poll of a student body if the entire student body was given slips of paper on which they can use to vote. I dont trust internet polls because only visitors of that particular site will vote. For example, a poll on CNN.com asking "Do you like paying attention to the news?" is obviously biased because few people visiting CNN.com don't actually care about the news. And as far as population samples go, what's up with the new "America's Got Talent" show (and many many other televised contests)? You can't be the best in america if not every single person in america was informed of the contest and had the choice to enter it. IMO that's just an example of how a population sample can be used to represent more than it can or should. Let's just leave it at "Beware of polls conducted by those with an opinion." __________________ Pentium 4, 3.0 GHz, 1 GB RAM ATI Radeon x800 128mb PCI-E graphics, CD-RW, DVD-ROM 330 GB internal SATA storage, 120 GB external and my favoritest gaming mouse ever- a Dell default 3-button ball mouse =D

07-26-2006, 01:57 PM	#2 (permalink)
Sum Yung Guy I helped the forums. Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Ramadi, Iraq Posts: 34 OS: WinXP Pro My System	I dont believe theres weapons of mass destruction in iraq. Its a possibility that there are, but not from Iraqi insurgents. Theres alot of insurgents who come across the various borders to fight us. Theres been a sniper thats been terrorizing the sector I am deployed to who they believe is Lebonese (sp). As far for the "Saddam Husein had 'strong links' with al-Qaeda".... who knows, I have no evidence to make me think either way so Ill just leave it at that.

07-27-2006, 07:01 AM	#5 (permalink)
bruiser TSF Enthusiast Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 1,974 OS: xp	I took statistics years ago. I don't remember much about it, I hated it, but I was impressed with how easy it is to rig a poll. Any pollster worth his salt can get any answer to any poll he wants. Am I suggesting that some polls are rigged to come to a predetermined conclusion? You bet your booties I am. Not only can the questions(s) be worded in such a way as to come to a predetermined conclusion, but the population sample can be rigged as well. For instance, a political pollster may say we sampled 4 zip codes, 2 of which had a Republican majority, and the other 2 had a Democratic majority of registered voters. And unless the pollster supplies you with ALL the info he had at his disposal, the person reading the poll might not realize that one of the majority parties in two of the zip codes may have had an advantage of maybe 75% to 20%, with 5% independent, while the other majority party may have only had a 52% to 45%, advantage with 3% independent. Unfortunately, most likely you will never know if a poll has been fixed to give a predetermined result. The bigger the population sample, the better the results, if the fix isn't in.

07-31-2006, 11:26 AM	#9 (permalink)
bry623 Manager, The Conversation Pit/Analyst, Security Team Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: NW Territory circa 1787 Posts: 11,692 OS: winxp pro sp2	I was going to turn this into a bash the polls. Harris, zogby at al. But they beat me to it. And as far as America's got talent. I like 'Rappin Granny' __________________ "If you aren't a liberal when you're 20, you have no heart. If you aren't a conservative when you are 50, you have no brain"

08-07-2006, 07:06 AM	#10 (permalink)
hempknight TSF Enthusiast Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 644 OS: XP Pro	LMAO!! "rapping granny" that sounds funny.. anyway..i'm not surprised..the big networks can make the news what they want it to be..so the info about iraq != WMD goes out..all foreign media pick it up..CNN reports YES!!! saddam is a BAD arab man..and he wants to hurt your kids!!! and thus ameriancs say YEAH!! lets bomb the crap out of ppl and send masses of young ppl to kill others and die.. what a waste..

08-07-2006, 07:48 AM	#11 (permalink)
bry623 Manager, The Conversation Pit/Analyst, Security Team Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: NW Territory circa 1787 Posts: 11,692 OS: winxp pro sp2	A poll question I got was "The minmum wage is $5.15 an hour and has not increased in over 10 years. Do you feel that the minimum wage sould be increased?" Who would say no to that kind of question. In America, the only poll that counts is the one on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. __________________ "If you aren't a liberal when you're 20, you have no heart. If you aren't a conservative when you are 50, you have no brain"

08-09-2006, 01:10 AM	#12 (permalink)
DumberDrummer Cymru am byth Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Oregon Posts: 5,385 OS: Windows XP Pro SP2 My System	That one is biased and rigged too... __________________ Living with Louie dog's the only way to stay sane _____________________________________________ ... and with those words so begins my lifetime of longing for the devil's warm embrace

08-09-2006, 06:02 AM	#13 (permalink)
bry623 Manager, The Conversation Pit/Analyst, Security Team Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: NW Territory circa 1787 Posts: 11,692 OS: winxp pro sp2	How is it biased and rigged? It's worked for the last 217 years. __________________ "If you aren't a liberal when you're 20, you have no heart. If you aren't a conservative when you are 50, you have no brain"

08-09-2006, 11:26 AM	#14 (permalink)
DumberDrummer Cymru am byth Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Oregon Posts: 5,385 OS: Windows XP Pro SP2 My System	Depends on your definition of "worked", now doesn't it? Just because its been used for the last 217 years doesn't mean it can't be inherently flawed... __________________ Living with Louie dog's the only way to stay sane _____________________________________________ ... and with those words so begins my lifetime of longing for the devil's warm embrace

08-09-2006, 02:21 PM	#15 (permalink)
bry623 Manager, The Conversation Pit/Analyst, Security Team Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: NW Territory circa 1787 Posts: 11,692 OS: winxp pro sp2	Flawed? Maybe, but I am and ends justify the means guy. We wouldn't be where we are today if it hasn't worked. The problem is that the youth of this country believe the liberal media's constant stolen election propaganda and can't let it go. They make Goebbels look tame by comparison. __________________ "If you aren't a liberal when you're 20, you have no heart. If you aren't a conservative when you are 50, you have no brain"