20% of Dems defect to McCain

bry623 · 03-21-2008, 01:10 PM

if their candidate is not nominated.
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics....20080321a.html

**Drew1369** · 03-21-2008, 03:05 PM

I think its funny that the press... about a month ago was talking about how devisive the republican party has become... and yet here we are with a nominee.

**Chode** · 03-22-2008, 04:59 PM

I live in a rural area, so it isn't a big deal just to drive over to the feed store when you need a bale or two of hay. But, since most brooms today are made of synthetic materials, I guess you urban types have a real problem finding straws to clutch.

The other way to look at bry's link is to realize that 100% of the winning Democratic nominee's supporters will support them in the general election, and 80% of those who backed the losing candidate will support them as well. From that standpoint, things don't look quite so divisive and (don't make such good copy), do they? Anyway, I think we all realize that the moderates and independents are really going to decide the election.

McCain, a man I admire in many ways, is too closely identified with all the failures of the Bush Administration (probably even some he opposed) to win.

Edit: As an example of how the crossover vote may work in the Dems' favor I wanted to include this link about a voter who has never voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate, but may (or not) vote for one this time. Party issues aside, it is worth reading even it it's a bit overlong.

bry623 · 03-22-2008, 05:19 PM

Except for McCain has all this time to get 100% of the Romney/Huckabee backers.

**Chode** · 03-22-2008, 05:47 PM

McCain has no guarantee of securing the backing of all his opponents supporters. In particular, I can imagine Romney supporters and dis-enchanted Giuliani supporters as a good pool of potential crossover voters. Anyway, it's still the uncommitted that will decide the election. Here's a current projection of Electoral College votes from the Rasmussen Reports. Pretty clear how the swing vote will make all the difference don't you think?

**sobeit** · 03-22-2008, 07:18 PM

lets not forget about those republicans who will defect and vote democrat. In the end it will all equal out.

bry623 · 03-23-2008, 08:36 AM

Not a chance. BHO and HRC will fight it out all the way to the convention. Dem chaos is good for McCain and he can take the high road about.

**Chode** · 03-23-2008, 10:25 AM

I'm still not willing to concede that the Democrats differences constitute chaos. In fact, Clinton and Obama share more points in common than not. Face it; 8 years of Neocon leadership have produced failures virtually across the board. Even even No Child Left Behind and Afghanistan aren't enough to make up for the dramatic failures of the Bush agenda.

Sure, there are a couple of bright spots in the current term. Bush fired Rummy. So, after years of his micro-mismanagement of the war in Iraq, the commanders in the field got a chance to use established counter-insurgency tactics. But even with the U.S. working more closely with Iraqi factional leaders and tribal leaders, I still don't believe anyone can call the war a success. If you want to read a truly scathing view of the current strategy and how it relates to McCain, try this one.

The one millstone that McCain hasn't a prayer of removing from his neck is the state of the economy. Let's see now, home mortgage foreclosures have now broken the record set during the Reagan administration, Bush has turned a record budget surplus into a massive deficit, gas prices are at record highs, and taxpayers are footing the bill for a failed investment bank. None of this is a good argument for Republican economic policies. In fact, this is exactly why Federal oversight of banking and securities trading was established to begin with. There are good reasons why antitrust legislation was enacted (a priority of more clear-headed Republicans than the current crop).

Bottom line is that the upcoming election will see Republican Presidential ambitions go down in flames. Personally, I'm bringing hot dogs and marshmallows.

mikeber · 03-24-2008, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chode

I'm still not willing to concede that the Democrats differences constitute chaos. In fact, Clinton and Obama share more points in common than not. Face it; 8 years of Neocon leadership have produced failures virtually across the board. Even even No Child Left Behind and Afghanistan aren't enough to make up for the dramatic failures of the Bush agenda.

Sure, there are a couple of bright spots in the current term. Bush fired Rummy. So, after years of his micro-mismanagement of the war in Iraq, hitch the commanders in the field got a chance to use established counter-insurgency tactics. But even with the U.S. working more closely with Iraqi factional leaders and tribal leaders, I still don't believe anyone can call the war a success. If you want to read a truly scathing view of the current strategy and how it relates to McCain, try this one.

The one millstone that McCain hasn't a prayer of removing from his neck is the state of the economy. Let's see now, home mortgage foreclosures have now broken the record set during the Reagan administration, Bush has turned a record budget surplus into a massive deficit, gas prices are at record highs, and taxpayers are footing the bill for a failed investment bank. None of this is a good argument for Republican economic policies. In fact, this is exactly why Federal oversight of banking and securities trading was established to begin with. There are good reasons why antitrust legislation was enacted (a priority of more clear-headed Republicans than the current crop).

Bottom line is that the upcoming election will see Republican Presidential ambitions go down in flames. Personally, I'm bringing hot dogs and marshmallows.

These are just your (and perhaps mine) wishful thoughts. The current election process is totally unpredictable. American voters surprise us again and again and if you look for logic, look elsewhere.
In 2004, the Iraqi war was already an established fact, but George Bush was reelected in spite of that.
Today the republicans elected John McCain in spite the fact that conservatives are totally unhappy with his record. Who then voted for him, a candidate that was rejected by republicans in the past? Once even before the primaries begun, Jay Leno once jocked that McCain was so out of funds that he hitch hiked to Florida...
As for democrats...who would have guessed that such unknown as Obama will be in the place he is today? What credentials does he bring to the table beside speeches about hope? Nada.
Is the fight between him and Clinton damaging to the democratic campaign? Hard to say if and to what extend. However, as more time passes without a clear decision, the candidates will be exhausted even before the elections begin.
This time, nothing is guaranteed...

03-21-2008, 01:10 PM	#1 (permalink)
bry623 Manager, The Conversation Pit/Analyst, Security Team Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: NW Territory circa 1787 Posts: 10,465 OS: winxp pro sp2	20% of Dems defect to McCain if their candidate is not nominated. http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics....20080321a.html __________________ Scarlet and Gray in L.A. 9/13/08

03-21-2008, 03:05 PM	#2 (permalink)
Drew1369 TSF Enthusiast Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Seattle, WA, USA Posts: 2,220 OS: Vista Business	Re: 20% of Dems defect to McCain I think its funny that the press... about a month ago was talking about how devisive the republican party has become... and yet here we are with a nominee. __________________ Marge: We wouldn't be in this trouble if you'd just paid the heating bill! Homer: I thought global warming would take care of it! Al Gore can't do anything right!

03-22-2008, 04:59 PM	#3 (permalink)
Chode TSF Enthusiast Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 745 OS: Windows XP Pro	Re: 20% of Dems defect to McCain I live in a rural area, so it isn't a big deal just to drive over to the feed store when you need a bale or two of hay. But, since most brooms today are made of synthetic materials, I guess you urban types have a real problem finding straws to clutch. The other way to look at bry's link is to realize that 100% of the winning Democratic nominee's supporters will support them in the general election, and 80% of those who backed the losing candidate will support them as well. From that standpoint, things don't look quite so divisive and (don't make such good copy), do they? Anyway, I think we all realize that the moderates and independents are really going to decide the election. McCain, a man I admire in many ways, is too closely identified with all the failures of the Bush Administration (probably even some he opposed) to win. Edit: As an example of how the crossover vote may work in the Dems' favor I wanted to include this link about a voter who has never voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate, but may (or not) vote for one this time. Party issues aside, it is worth reading even it it's a bit overlong. __________________ Sweet! Last edited by Chode : 03-22-2008 at 05:07 PM.

03-22-2008, 05:19 PM	#4 (permalink)
bry623 Manager, The Conversation Pit/Analyst, Security Team Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: NW Territory circa 1787 Posts: 10,465 OS: winxp pro sp2	Re: 20% of Dems defect to McCain Except for McCain has all this time to get 100% of the Romney/Huckabee backers. __________________ Scarlet and Gray in L.A. 9/13/08

03-22-2008, 05:47 PM	#5 (permalink)
Chode TSF Enthusiast Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 745 OS: Windows XP Pro	Re: 20% of Dems defect to McCain McCain has no guarantee of securing the backing of all his opponents supporters. In particular, I can imagine Romney supporters and dis-enchanted Giuliani supporters as a good pool of potential crossover voters. Anyway, it's still the uncommitted that will decide the election. Here's a current projection of Electoral College votes from the Rasmussen Reports. Pretty clear how the swing vote will make all the difference don't you think? __________________ Sweet!

03-22-2008, 07:18 PM	#6 (permalink)
sobeit Mentor Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: NEAR Posts: 4,836 OS: windows/linux	Re: 20% of Dems defect to McCain lets not forget about those republicans who will defect and vote democrat. In the end it will all equal out. __________________ Do not feed the trolls.

03-23-2008, 08:36 AM	#7 (permalink)
bry623 Manager, The Conversation Pit/Analyst, Security Team Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: NW Territory circa 1787 Posts: 10,465 OS: winxp pro sp2	Re: 20% of Dems defect to McCain Not a chance. BHO and HRC will fight it out all the way to the convention. Dem chaos is good for McCain and he can take the high road about. __________________ Scarlet and Gray in L.A. 9/13/08

03-23-2008, 10:25 AM	#8 (permalink)
Chode TSF Enthusiast Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 745 OS: Windows XP Pro	Re: 20% of Dems defect to McCain I'm still not willing to concede that the Democrats differences constitute chaos. In fact, Clinton and Obama share more points in common than not. Face it; 8 years of Neocon leadership have produced failures virtually across the board. Even even No Child Left Behind and Afghanistan aren't enough to make up for the dramatic failures of the Bush agenda. Sure, there are a couple of bright spots in the current term. Bush fired Rummy. So, after years of his micro-mismanagement of the war in Iraq, the commanders in the field got a chance to use established counter-insurgency tactics. But even with the U.S. working more closely with Iraqi factional leaders and tribal leaders, I still don't believe anyone can call the war a success. If you want to read a truly scathing view of the current strategy and how it relates to McCain, try this one. The one millstone that McCain hasn't a prayer of removing from his neck is the state of the economy. Let's see now, home mortgage foreclosures have now broken the record set during the Reagan administration, Bush has turned a record budget surplus into a massive deficit, gas prices are at record highs, and taxpayers are footing the bill for a failed investment bank. None of this is a good argument for Republican economic policies. In fact, this is exactly why Federal oversight of banking and securities trading was established to begin with. There are good reasons why antitrust legislation was enacted (a priority of more clear-headed Republicans than the current crop). Bottom line is that the upcoming election will see Republican Presidential ambitions go down in flames. Personally, I'm bringing hot dogs and marshmallows. __________________ Sweet!